Ultrasounds for Biological Applications and Materials Science

9th April

Github link to Python 2.7 code, data and analysis.

All data provided by Ministerio de Sanidad, Gobierno de España

For analysis obtained using data for previous days follow this link

Analysis and projections of COVID-19 data in Spain using data available up to April 9th.

 

Table of projections of main indicators using data available since 23rd february and up to  27th March – 9th April. 

    – Casos totales: Estimated total cases at the end of the pandemics

    – Pico de casos x dia: Estimated day when the number of new cases will get tot he macimum value.

    – Fallecimients totales: Estimated total number of deaths at the end of the pandemics

     – Pico de fallecientos x dia: Estimated day when the number of deaths will get to the macimum value.

    – Pico de altas x dia: Estimated day when the number of recovereds will get to the maximum value.

Tabla_9Abril

Predicted total numer of cases at the end of the pandemics remains rather constant since 28th march and remains close to 150.000 – 180.000 cases. The registered number of cases, according to the Spanish Health Ministry on April 9th was:  152.446. So this suggests that the apparition of new cases is geting close to the end.

The estimated day with the maximum number of cases x day emained fixed and around 29-30 March.

The projection is also rather stable for the total number of deaths expected at the end of the pandemics. This projection is arond 20.000 – 22.000 and it is stable since 29th March. The registered number of deaths, according to the Spanish Health Ministry on April 9th was: 15.238.

Also the peak of deaths x day remain constant since the estimation made with the data available at 29 March: this peak is expected in April 3rd.

The estimated day for the maximum cases (x day) cured also remained rather constant since 29th march and is expected for April 13th.

Finally the estimated day with the maximum number of active cases also remained rather constant and predictions have not changed significantly since the firs analysis performed on march 27th. This day is expected between the 4th and the 7th of April

 

OBTAINED RESULTS FOR THE COMPLETE SERIES OF DATA UP TO APRIL 9th

Registered cases of COVID-19 in Spain (9th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function

casos_9abril

Registered cases of COVID-19 in Spain (9th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function and comparison with similar fitting but using the Gompertz sigmoid and the SIR model

compara_modelos_9abril

Registered deaths due to COVID-19 in Spain (9th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of 5 to 10 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid)

muertes_9abril

Registered admissions in ICU due to COVID-19 in Spain (9th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of -2 to 10 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid). This period of time seems consistent with available data of covid-19 so far.

uci_9abril

It is a strange feature that ICU admission sigmoid is placed a few days before the sigmoide obtained for the number of cases

Registered medical discharge due to COVID-19 in Spain (9th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of 15 to 20 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid)

altas_9abril

Estimated active cases vs days

casos_activos_9abril

Estimated mortality

Mortalidad_9abirl

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t.gomez@csic.es
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