7th April

Github link to Python 2.7 code, data and analysis.

All data provided by Ministerio de Sanidad, Gobierno de España

For analysis using the last available data follow this link

For analysis obtained using data for previous days follow this link

Analysis and projections of COVID-19 data in Spain using data available up to April 7th

Table of projections of main indicators using data available since 23rd february and up to 27th March – 7th April.

– Casos totales: Estimated total cases at the end of the pandemics

– Pico de casos x dia: Estimated day when the number of new cases will get tot he macimum value.

– Fallecimients totales: Estimated total number of deaths at the end of the pandemics

– Pico de fallecientos x dia: Estimated day when the number of deaths will get to the macimum value.

– Pico de altas x dia: Estimated day when the number of recovereds will get to the maximum value.

Tabla_7abril

Predicted total numer of cases at the end of the pandemics remains rather constant since 28th march and remains close to 150.000 – 170.000 cases.

The estimated day with the maximum number of cases x day emained fixed and around 29-30 March.

The projection is also rather stable for the total number of deaths expected at the end of the pandemics. This projection is arond 20.000 – 22.000 and it is stable since 29th March

Also the peak of deaths x day remain constant since the estimation made with the data available at 29 March: this peak is expected in April 3rd.

The estimated day for the maximum cases (x day) cured also remained rather constant since 29th march and is expected for April 13th.

Finally the estimated day with the maximum number of active cases also remained rather constant and predictions have not changed significantly since the firs analysis performed on march 27th. This day is expected between the 4th and the 7th of April

OBTAINED RESULTS FOR THE COMPLETE SERIES OF DATA UP TO APRIL 7th

Registered cases of COVID-19 in Spain (7th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function

casos_7abril

Registered cases of COVID-19 in Spain (7th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function and comparison with similar fitting but using the Gompertz sigmoid and the SIR model

compara_modelos_7abril

Registered deaths due to COVID-19 in Spain (7th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of 5 to 10 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid)

muertos_7abril

Registered admissions in ICU due to COVID-19 in Spain (7th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of -2 to 10 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid). This period of time seems consistent with available data of covid-19 so far.

uci_7abril

It is a strange feature that ICU admission sigmoid is placed a few days before the sigmoide obtained for the number of cases

Registered medical discharge due to COVID-19 in Spain (7th April) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of 15 to 20 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid)

altas_7abril