Ultrasounds for Biological Applications and Materials Science

4th April

Analysis of COVID-19 data in Spain.

 

Github link to Python 2.7 code, data and analysis.

All data provided by Ministerio de Sanidad, Gobierno de España

 

Analysis and projections using data available up to April 4th

                           For analysis obtained using data for previous days follow this link

 

Table of projections of main indicators using data available since 23rd february and up to  27th March – 4th April. 

    – Casos totales: Estimated total cases at the end of the pandemics

    – Pico de casos x dia: Estimated day when the number of new cases will get tot he macimum value.

    – Fallecimients totales: Estimated total number of deaths at the end of the pandemics

     – Pico de fallecientos x dia: Estimated day when the number of deaths will get to the macimum value.

    – Pico de altas x dia: Estimated day when the number of recovereds will get to the macimum value.

There is an initial decrase in the estimated number of total cases, and then it keeps varying between 140.000 and 170.000. Similar with the estimated total number of deaths at the end, which initially (27th march) was estimated close to 30.000 and finaly it is estabilized around 20.000 – 22.000

Tabla_casos4abril

OBTAINED RESULTS FOR THE COMPLETE SERIES OF DATA UP TO APRIL 4th

Registered cases of COVID-19 in Spain (4 Abril) fitting and future trend using a logistic function

casos_4abril

Registered deaths due to COVID-19 in Spain (4 Abril) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of 5 to 10 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid)

 

defunciones_4abril

Registered admissions in ICU due to COVID-19 in Spain (4 Abril) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of -2 to 10 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid). This period of time seems consistent with available data of covid-19 so far

uci_4abril

It is a strange feature that ICU admission sigmoid is placed a few days before the sigmoide obtained for the number of cases

Registered medical discharge due to COVID-19 in Spain (4 Abril) fitting and future trend using a logistic function (allowed a delay of 15 to 20 days compared to the detected cases sigmoid)

altas_4abril

Estimated active cases vs days

casos_activos4abril

Estimated mortality

Mortalidad_4abril

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